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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-6 h15-30 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-83-82-62-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
RiskRoot causeSafety
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
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