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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min1-5 Tage60-120 min30-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-8Nutzertraffic2-81-5
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsCompleted Experiment Canvas, Success Metric
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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