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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Dual-Track Agile |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When uncertainty and delivery run in parallel, it separates learning work from implementation while keeping both connected. It prevents unvalidated ideas from falling directly into the delivery stream. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | Laufend, Wochen bis Monate | 1-2 h | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Discovery Backlog, Delivery Backlog, Experiment-Ergebnisse, Validierte Stories | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | AgileDiscoveryDelivery | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |