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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  UX Research Diary Study |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When experiences build up over days or weeks and a single session cannot capture them, Diary Study records the course of everyday life. Recurring triggers, moods, and habits become visible this way, beyond the sharpness of memory. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 5-20 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Diary Entries, Longitudinal Patterns, Experience Timeline | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | UX researchTrackingBehavior | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |