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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Innovation Design Thinking |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For complex user problems with an uncertain cause, the method connects observation, interpretation, and experiment into a learning cycle. It keeps the focus on real needs and avoids premature solution language. This produces robust decisions for product and service. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1 Tag bis mehrere Wochen | 2-4 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Statement, Prototype, Test Learnings | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | InnovationPrototypeResearch | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking |