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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Innovation Design Thinking |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For complex user problems with an uncertain cause, the method connects observation, interpretation, and experiment into a learning cycle. It keeps the focus on real needs and avoids premature solution language. This produces robust decisions for product and service. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1 Tag bis mehrere Wochen | 60-120 min | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Problem Statement, Prototype, Test Learnings | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | InnovationPrototypeResearch | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |