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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Product Strategy DIBB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis |