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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | Half day | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |