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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Agile Bucket System |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 30-90 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-12 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationExpertsForecasting |