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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Business Strategy Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | The Blue Ocean Strategy Canvas shows how an offering is positioned relative to the market. Differentiation thereby becomes tangible in value factors instead of merely being claimed. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-4 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Strategy Canvas, Value Curve, ERRC Actions | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | StrategyPositioningInnovationValue | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |