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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 60-180 min | 30-90 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-20 | 1-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |