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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 60-180 min | 20-35 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-20 | 1-5 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |