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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 60-180 min | 20–45 min | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 4-20 | Small cross-functional group | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale |
Tags1 shared | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | SensemakingDecisionRationale |