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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 20–45 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |