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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-6 h2-4 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-83-82-63-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
Root causeSafetyIncident
RiskRoot causeSafety
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