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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Change Analysis.
Operations
Change Analysis
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a deviation after a change, the method isolates the influence of the altered condition. It narrows down which differences are relevant and which are just accompanying noise.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min45-120 min15-30 min2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-62-62-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanChange Matrix, Cause Hypotheses, Validation Questions, Action ListRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ChangeRoot causeTroubleshootingComparison
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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