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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |