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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighHighMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-6 h2-6 h45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-103-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective ActionsCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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