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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-6 h | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |