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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking CATWOE Analysis |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | CATWOE structures a problem from six viewpoints and prevents too narrow a view of the situation. Different experiences of the system become comparably discussable this way. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | CATWOE Canvas, Root Definition, Stakeholder Perspectives, Constraints | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingFramingStakeholders | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |