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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Agile Bucket System |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-90 min | 15-45 min | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-12 | 1-8 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |