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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Blameless Postmortem workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Blameless Postmortem
Paper illustration for Incident Timeline Analysis.
DevOps
Incident Timeline Analysis
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.After an incident with damage or a near miss, the method creates a sober field for learning without assigning blame. It directs attention to the course of events, conditions, and effective countermeasures.For an incident with an unclear sequence, the method makes the timeline precisely visible. It separates perception, reaction, and delay so cause and effect become more clearly readable.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min30-90 min60-180 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-123-102-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanPostmortem Doc, Action Items, TimelineIncident Timeline, Evidence Log, Delay Analysis, Improvement ActionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Site Reliability EngineeringIncidentLearningReliability
IncidentTimelineSite Reliability Engineering
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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