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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20-45 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-10 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |