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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min20-45 min45-60 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-81-102-8Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanBehavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key EventsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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