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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Barrier Analysis |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 2-4 h | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Root causeSafetyIncident | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | RiskRoot causeSafety |