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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-4 h1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-6Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning DecisionAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetyIncident
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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