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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min2-4 h30-60 min20-35 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-61-51-5
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogCompleted Experiment Canvas, Success MetricTest Card with a pre-set threshold
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeSafetyIncident
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
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