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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 10-20 min daily | 2-8 h | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1 | 2-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |