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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration of MORT Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
MORT Analysis
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighHigh
Timedifferent
45-90 min15-30 minMehrere Tage bis Wochen2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-62-62-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresMORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic RecommendationsProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Root causeSafetySystemicIncident
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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