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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Value Chain Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Value Chain Analysis
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowLow
Timedifferent
45-60 minHalf day20-35 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-81-52-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingValue Chain Map, Lever ListTest Card with a pre-set thresholdAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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