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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-5 Tage15-45 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-8Nutzertraffic1-81-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NotePERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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