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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-60 min20–45 min1-5 Tage1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional groupNutzertrafficNutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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