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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-60 min20–45 min2-4 h2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-8Small cross-functional group2-63-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Root causeSafetyIncident
RiskRoot causeSafety
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