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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together.The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min15-60 min je Zyklus1-4 Wochen25-40 min
Participantsdifferent
2-81-86-30 Experten1-5
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesExpert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption NotesLearning Card with evidence and next action
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning
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