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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-60 min | 2-4 h | 45-90 min | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |