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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Growth A/B Testing |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-60 min | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |