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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighLowLow
Timedifferent
45-60 min2-6 h45-90 min25-40 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-82-81-5
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanLearning Card with evidence and next action
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning
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