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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Barrier Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Operations
Barrier Analysis
Paper illustration for Fault Tree Analysis.
Operations
Fault Tree Analysis
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions.For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
45-60 min2-4 h2-6 h1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
2-82-63-82-6
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingBarrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action BacklogFault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control ActionsPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Root causeSafetyIncident
RiskRoot causeSafety
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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