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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-60 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |