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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 45-60 min | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |