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| Criterion |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Growth A/B Testing |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-60 min | 1-4 Wochen | 20–45 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-6 | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |