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Criterion
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
10-20 min daily20–45 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1Small cross-functional groupNutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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