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Criterion
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calibrated five-by-five risk matrix with response cards.
Decision Making
Risk Matrix
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When a project faces many possible disruptions, it quickly becomes unclear which risks deserve attention first. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Risk Matrix and a Top Risk List.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitysame
LowLowLowLow
Timedifferent
10-20 min daily20–45 min30-60 min45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1Small cross-functional group3-102-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logRisk Matrix, Top Risk ListAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
RiskDecisionPrioritizationAssessment
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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