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Criterion
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighLow
Timedifferent
10-20 min daily20–45 min2-6 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
1Small cross-functional group3-102-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation ActionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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