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| Criterion |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Product Strategy DIBB |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | DIBB helps clarify target groups, value, goals, and priorities by making the logic behind a decision explicit. It captures results as a DIBB document, belief list, bet list, and learning report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-20 min daily | 60-120 min | 1-2 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | DIBB document, Belief list, Bet list, Learning report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | StrategyDecisionAssumptionsHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |