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| Criterion |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 10-20 min daily | 60-120 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1 | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Async | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |