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Criterion
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMediumLow
Timedifferent
10-20 min daily45-90 min15-60 min je Zyklus20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
12-81-8Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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