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Criterion
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighLow
Timedifferent
10-20 min daily45-90 min2-8 h20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
12-82-8Small cross-functional group
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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