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Criterion
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for OODA Loop.
Decision Making
OODA Loop
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.In dynamic situations, decisions become outdated faster than they can be prepared. The OODA Loop holds observing, orienting, deciding, and acting together as a recurring rhythm so reaction does not slide into inertia.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumLow
Timedifferent
10-20 min daily45-60 min15-60 min je Zyklus45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
12-81-82-8
Formatdifferent
AsyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingSituation Assessment, Decision Loop, Action UpdatesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
DecisionChangeLearningStrategy
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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