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Criterion
Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Paper illustration of a Test Card with four fields for hypothesis, test, metric, and success threshold.
Product Discovery
Test Card
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes.The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowLowMedium
Timedifferent
30-90 min20-35 min45-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
3-121-52-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear ItemsTest Card with a pre-set thresholdAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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